The runway card collapses a complex question (will this month pay?) into a single date. That date moves as the month progresses — earlier when you have a strong week, later when you have a weak one. Watching the date is more useful than watching daily EBIT.
01 What does the runway card show?
The card displays an estimated day-of-month — say, day 19 — when this month's revenue starts genuinely paying you instead of paying the rent. It updates daily as new data comes in. If you're ahead of last month, the date moves earlier. If you're behind, it slips.
02 How does nouz estimate the runway date?
The estimate uses two inputs: your monthly fixed-cost burden (the sum of every active fixed cost's monthly equivalent) and your trailing average daily gross margin (typically the last 14–30 days, statistical rather than optimistic). nouz divides the fixed-cost burden by the average daily gross margin and rounds up to get the number of days to break-even — your runway estimate.
- Your monthly fixed-cost burden — sum of every active fixed cost's monthly equivalent.
- Your trailing average daily gross margin — typically last 14–30 days. Statistical, not optimistic.
Divide one by the other: fixed_cost / avg_daily_gross_margin = days_to_breakeven. Round up. That's your runway estimate.
03 How do I use the runway date day to day?
The runway card is good for three things. Use it as a pace check mid-month — the date tells you whether you're on track to make rent. Use it as a fixed-cost reality check: a runway of day 28 means your fixed costs are dangerously close to your gross margin capacity. And use it for decision support when weighing a new cost like a part-timer. Details follow.
- Pace check. Mid-month, the date tells you if you're on track to make rent.
- Fixed-cost reality check. If the runway is day 28, your fixed costs are dangerously close to your gross margin capacity.
- Decision support. Considering hiring a part-timer? Adding €2,000/month moves the runway later — is the date still acceptable?
04 What can the runway card not tell me?
The runway card doesn't predict seasonal swings (December isn't like June for most shops), doesn't know about one-off events you have planned (the festival next weekend), doesn't account for fixed-cost changes mid-month. It's a trailing-average projection, not a forecast. Use it as one input alongside your own knowledge of what's coming.
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