The runway card collapses a complex question (will this month pay?) into a single date. That date moves as the month progresses — earlier when you have a strong week, later when you have a weak one. Watching the date is more useful than watching daily EBIT.
01 What it shows
The card displays an estimated day-of-month — say, day 19 — when this month's revenue starts genuinely paying you instead of paying the rent. It updates daily as new data comes in. If you're ahead of last month, the date moves earlier. If you're behind, it slips.
02 How the estimate works
Two inputs:
- Your monthly fixed-cost burden — sum of every active fixed cost's monthly equivalent.
- Your trailing average daily gross margin — typically last 14–30 days. Statistical, not optimistic.
Divide one by the other: fixed_cost / avg_daily_gross_margin = days_to_breakeven. Round up. That's your runway estimate.
03 How to use it
Three things the runway card is good for:
- Pace check. Mid-month, the date tells you if you're on track to make rent.
- Fixed-cost reality check. If the runway is day 28, your fixed costs are dangerously close to your gross margin capacity.
- Decision support. Considering hiring a part-timer? Adding €2,000/month moves the runway later — is the date still acceptable?
04 What it can't tell you
The runway card doesn't predict seasonal swings (December isn't like June for most shops), doesn't know about one-off events you have planned (the festival next weekend), doesn't account for fixed-cost changes mid-month. It's a trailing-average projection, not a forecast. Use it as one input alongside your own knowledge of what's coming.
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