AOV break-even calculator.
Enter your CAC (customer acquisition cost), COGS, fees, and shipping. See the average order value (AOV) you need to break even — and what it takes to actually be profitable.
Per-order costs
Defaults work for most small shops in the EU.
Minimum AOV to break even
How this calculator works (same formula nouz uses)
Every ecommerce blog tells you to raise your average order value (AOV). Almost none tell you the minimum AOV your store needs just to break even. This calculator finds that floor: the order value at which one sale exactly covers the cost of winning the customer and fulfilling the order, with nothing left over and nothing lost.
In plain English: Break-even AOV = (CAC + COGS + shipping + fixed processing fee) ÷ (1 − percentage processing fee). The fixed costs sit on top; the percentage fee scales with order value, so we divide by "one minus the percentage fee" to solve for the AOV that leaves you flat. Set a target margin and the calculator also solves for the AOV that clears that margin, not just break-even.
A worked example
Using the defaults — CAC €18, COGS €14, shipping €5, Stripe at 1.5% + €0.25, and a 15% target margin:
- Fixed cost per order: €18 + €14 + €5 + €0.25 = €37.25
- Break-even AOV: €37.25 ÷ (1 − 0.015) = €37.25 ÷ 0.985 = €37.82
- AOV for a 15% margin: €37.25 ÷ (1 − 0.015 − 0.15) = €37.25 ÷ 0.835 = €44.61
So at an AOV of €37.82 you make exactly nothing. Sell at €30 and you are paying customers to take your products; to actually earn a 15% margin you need an AOV around €44.61.
What a healthy number looks like
The verdict is simple: your real AOV should sit comfortably above break-even, not near it. A useful rule of thumb is to aim for an AOV at least 20–30% above the break-even figure, which is roughly where a double-digit net margin lives. If your actual AOV is below break-even, the store loses money on every new customer no matter how well the ads perform. If it is only a euro or two above, you have no cushion for returns, a bad ad week, or a supplier price rise. For most small stores CAC is the largest single input — often bigger than COGS — so it is the lever that moves break-even AOV the most.
Common mistakes
- Optimizing "AOV up 10%" in a vacuum. A 10% lift means little if you never knew where break-even was; the target is AOV above break-even, not AOV higher than last month.
- Ignoring CAC. Owners pour effort into shaving COGS while a bloated CAC quietly sets the floor above their AOV.
- Using blended shipping. Free-shipping thresholds and heavy items mean real per-order shipping is often higher than the flat number you assume.
- Treating platform fees as a rounding error. The percentage fee is what makes break-even a division, not a simple sum — leave it out and your floor reads too low.
When to use it — and what's next
Run this before you set free-shipping thresholds, design bundles, or sign off an ad budget — anything that moves AOV or CAC. It is a unit-economics check, one order at a time; to watch AOV and costs move together day to day, nouz shows your real daily profit. nouz does not pull spend from ad platforms — you enter CAC yourself — because it is a simple daily profit tool, not an attribution suite. Pair it with the sibling break-even ROAS calculator to translate this floor into the ad return your ads must hit.
Common questions
What is break-even AOV and why does it matter?
Break-even AOV is the average order value at which one sale exactly covers CAC, COGS, shipping and payment fees, leaving zero profit and zero loss. It matters because selling below it means you lose money on every order regardless of volume — and no amount of ad optimisation fixes an AOV that sits under the floor.
Why do you divide by (1 minus the percentage fee) instead of just adding it?
The percentage payment fee scales with the order value, which you are solving for, so it cannot be added as a fixed euro amount. Dividing the fixed costs by "one minus the percentage fee" solves the circular relationship and returns the exact AOV where revenue less the percentage fee equals your fixed cost per order.
Why is CAC the biggest lever on break-even AOV?
For most small stores CAC is the largest single cost per order — often bigger than COGS. Because it sits inside the fixed cost total, cutting CAC by €5 lowers the break-even AOV more than trimming COGS by the same €5. Most owners optimise COGS and ignore the input that actually moves the floor.
How far above break-even should my real AOV be?
Aim for an AOV comfortably above the floor, not sitting on it. A rough rule of thumb is 20–30% above break-even, which is roughly where a double-digit net margin appears. A euro or two above leaves no cushion for returns, a weak ad week, or a supplier price rise, so build in headroom.
Does this include payment processing fees?
Yes. The fixed part of the Stripe fee is added to CAC, COGS and shipping, and the percentage part is handled by the division. Leaving fees out is a common mistake that makes the break-even AOV read lower than reality, which can lead you to price below the true floor.
Can nouz calculate my AOV and CAC from my store automatically?
No. nouz is a simple daily profit tool, not an attribution suite, so it does not connect to Shopify orders or ad platforms. You enter CAC and per-order costs yourself. The upside is that it forces you to total real acquisition and fulfilment costs rather than trusting a dashboard that hides them.