Ecommerce cash flow forecast

Profit and cash run on different calendars. The statement books the goods on the day they sell, while the supplier was paid weeks earlier for stock sized to sales that have not happened yet. The statement takes VAT out of revenue on the day of the sale, while the money stays in the account until the return is due, which makes a healthy balance look larger than it is. That gap is the whole story of profitable on paper, no cash in the bank, and it is what this file is built to show.

The example runs on the example store the calculators use, €60.000 of net revenue a month, starting with €25.000 in the bank on 5 October 2026. Filing monthly, the VAT inside each month's sales, €11.400, leaves on the 10th of the next month, minus the VAT paid on stock that month. In Germany the return is due on the 10th of the month after the period, or a month later with a standing extension; a monthly filer with the extension also prepays one eleventh of the previous year's VAT each February and has it credited against December. In Austria the return falls due on the 15th of the second month after the period. Both calendars, and Switzerland's, are worked through in the cash flow forecast with VAT.

Stock is the other calendar. The example orders eight weeks of goods every eight weeks, €50.089,85 with VAT, paid 30% on order and 70% on arrival 30 days later. In the week of 9 November the balance for the October order and October's VAT return fall due together: €44.063,64 leaves in a week in which customers pay €16.660,00. The month is still profitable, but that week closes on €20.076,01, the lowest of the thirteen: the figure that says how much cash the store needs to hold.

How long a euro spent on stock takes to come back as cash has a name of its own, the cash conversion cycle, and it is the number supplier terms move most.