- nouz
- Forecast
Forecast
Profit forecast: see where this month lands and how the year ahead looks.
A forecast built from your own Shopify orders and priced by the same engine as your P&L, with scenarios, goals and a plan for stock and cash beside it. On every plan.
On this page, 9 sections
nouz Forecast shows twelve months of profit, starting with where this month lands, from your own Shopify orders: each future day is the same weekday a year earlier, grown at your current pace and priced by the same engine as your P&L. A store with less than a year of orders gets four months from its last four weeks.
01 Where this month lands and the year ahead.
The Forecast opens on the month you are in: the EBITDA it is heading for (what the store keeps after every cost, before interest, tax and depreciation), a likely range around it, and how much of it is already booked and how much is still to come. Beside it sit net revenue and orders against the same month last year, marketing against your budget, and CM3, the margin left after advertising.
The month day by day shows what happened and the forecast for the days left, against your goal's pace. Below it, the forecast runs up to twelve months ahead, this one included, beside the twelve months before this one as they happened, each forecast month with its likely range, your goal and any event you planned.
Every month runs through the same P&L as your actual numbers, from gross revenue to EBITDA, and the forecast P&L exports as a CSV file that a German Excel opens correctly.
02 Built from your own orders and priced like your P&L.
With a year or more of orders, every future day is read from the same weekday a year earlier, 364 days back, so a Saturday stays a Saturday. Its orders grow at your current pace: your recent orders against the same weeks a year before, capped so one odd month cannot run away with it.
Each ad platform keeps its own pace. A platform you paused stays paused, a channel that barely ran a year ago repeats its last four weeks, and marketing you enter on the Overhead page carries on as you set it up.
Then the same engine that computes your P&L prices every forecast day with your product costs, shipping, payment fees and overhead, including any cost change you saved with a future start date: a carrier's new rates from next month are already in the months they apply to.
A store with four weeks to a year of orders gets a shorter forecast: its last four complete weeks, repeated for this month and the next three, and the page says so. With less than four weeks of orders there is no forecast yet, because anything shorter would be a guess.
Last year's Black Friday season is found in your own daily orders and repeats unless you switch it off.
Every month carries a likely range. Once a store has a little over a year of orders, nouz checks the method against past months, and with three of them checked the range is where eight of ten past forecasts landed, with the recent misses shown beside it; until then it is an estimate that widens a little each month further out.
Anything the forecast cannot price yet, such as a product without a unit cost or a payment method without a fee rule, is listed with a link to the page that fixes it.
03 Test a change before you make it
Change what you expect and EBITDA for the months ahead moves from your forecast to the scenario, with net revenue, CM2, marketing and overhead beside it. Your changes apply in the months you choose, and the days already booked never move.
nouz models no attribution, so you say what an extra euro of ads brings back, and the panel shows the point below which more ads lower profit. With an EBITDA goal set, Match my EBITDA goal finds the ad change that lands on it.
Scenarios are saved by name and always measured against your forecast, so a price rise you saved stays a price rise when your store's growth moves.
04 Goals the forecast is checked against
Set a monthly goal for net revenue and EBITDA, and a marketing budget as a ceiling. Type one total for the year and nouz spreads it over the months the way your forecast is spread, so the busy months carry more.
Each month is marked On track, At risk or Likely short: on track when the forecast reaches the goal, at risk when only the top of its likely range does. On the month's day-by-day chart the goal follows your usual weekday pattern, so a quiet Monday does not look like falling behind.
05 Sales, launches and campaigns, on their dates
Add a sale, a launch or a campaign with its dates, the extra orders you expect, its discount and its ad budget, and the forecast takes it in on those days.
Each event shows what it adds to EBITDA or takes from it, and a sale that brings more orders but costs more than it earns says why: that its discount, or its ad budget, costs more than the extra orders bring.
Last year's Black Friday season is on the list too, and counts until you switch it off.
06 What to order, and whether the cash lasts
The purchase plan works out, for every product Shopify tracks stock for, when it runs out at the forecast pace and the order that keeps it in stock, counting what is already on order. Each order covers your lead time, your safety stock and the weeks you order for, and is priced at the unit cost that applies on its own day.
Lead times come from the Products page, the store's own or a product's, and stock on its way counts as arriving at the end of the lead time, because Shopify gives no arrival date for it.
Each product is marked Sold out, Order today, Order in a number of days, Covered for now or Enough stock, and the tab totals what to order in the next 30 days. It starts at 14 days of safety stock and orders that cover 8 weeks, and both are yours to change.
The cash plan shows the money in your bank at the end of each month: what sales bring in after costs, with the VAT customers pay, minus stock payments on your supplier terms and the VAT return.
The VAT return is paid on the 10th of the month it falls due, and it reclaims the VAT you paid on stock. Enter the cash in your bank today and the plan shows your balances; leave it empty and it shows the change from today. Income tax, loans and payouts that arrive a few days after a sale are not part of the plan, and the tab says so.
07 The forecast in your inbox
The daily profit email carries the forecast unless you switch it off: where the month will likely end, how that compares with your goal, and the EBITDA of the months ahead.
Four alerts watch the months that begin within the next eight weeks: a month likely to miss its EBITDA goal, cash likely to drop below a floor you set, a product due to be ordered, and marketing forecast above your budget.
The goal alert is on from the start and the other three are yours to switch on, on the Forecast page or under Settings and Notifications. The goal, cash and budget alerts write at most once a week; the reorder alert names a product on its order day and again after two weeks if it is still due.
08 On every plan
Forecast is part of every plan and of the 14-day free trial. The plans cost Base $55, Pro $115 and Scale $289 a month (about €49, €99 and €249); Base covers up to 500 orders a month, and Pro and Scale have no order limit.
No plan charges per order, and every plan carries every feature.
09 Questions
How does nouz forecast profit?
From your own orders. With a year or more of history, each future day is the same weekday a year earlier, grown at your current pace, and the engine that computes your P&L prices it with your costs, including the cost changes you scheduled. A younger store gets its last four weeks repeated for this month and the next three.
How accurate is the forecast?
Every month shows a likely range. Once a store has a little over a year of orders, nouz checks the method against past months, and with three of them checked the range is where eight of ten past forecasts landed, with the recent misses shown beside it. Until then the range is an estimate that widens a little each month further out.
Does the forecast include Black Friday and my own promotions?
Yes. Last year's Black Friday season is found in your own orders and repeats unless you switch it off, and your sales, launches and campaigns are added on their dates with the extra orders, discount and ad budget you set.
Does nouz place purchase orders with my suppliers?
No. The purchase plan tells you when each product needs ordering and how many units, priced at your unit costs; you place the order with your supplier as you do today.
Does the cash plan include VAT?
Yes. Money in includes the VAT customers pay, stock payments include the VAT on stock, and the VAT return is paid on the 10th of the month it falls due, monthly or quarterly, reclaiming the VAT paid on stock. Income tax, loans and payouts that arrive days after a sale are not part of it.
Which plans include Forecast?
Every plan: Base, Pro and Scale, each with 14 days free. The plans cost Base $55, Pro $115 and Scale $289 a month (about €49, €99 and €249), with no fee per order; Base covers up to 500 orders a month, and Pro and Scale have no order limit.
The simplest honest forecast moves your own last year forward, weekday by weekday, scales it by how you are really growing, and prices it with the costs that will apply.
This month's statement carried twelve months forward, orders and ad spend each growing at their own rate.
What the months ahead will earn, after every cost.
A profitable month can still drain the account when the VAT return and the supplier invoices fall due. How to build a cash flow forecast that knows both dates.
The stock level that should trigger a purchase order, and how many units that order should be.
The statement says the store earns money and the account still falls. The four calendars that separate profit from cash, and the plan that fits a genuinely profitable store.
See where your month lands.
Every plan starts with 14 days free. nouz imports every order your store has ever taken, so the forecast has your history from the first day.