Planning next month's spend

Marketing budget planner

A marketing budget planner works backwards from margin instead of forwards from last month's spend. Contribution after goods, fulfilment and fees, minus fixed costs and the profit you intend to keep, is what is genuinely available for advertising, and the implied ratio says whether it is achievable.

The file

nouz-marketing-budget-planner.csv · 9 columns · one example row

Budgets set as a percentage of revenue are guesses wearing a rule. The money available for advertising is whatever contribution remains once the fixed block and the profit you actually intend to keep are taken out, and on thin unit economics that figure can be far smaller than any percentage rule would suggest.

The last column is the reality check. Dividing planned revenue by the budget gives the marketing efficiency ratio the plan assumes, and comparing it against what your advertising has actually delivered is what turns a budget into a forecast rather than a wish. A plan that needs a ratio well above your trailing performance is a plan that will miss.

The floor underneath all of this is the ratio at which an ad euro merely breaks even, which comes from your own contribution margin: on the example figures, every euro of spend needs about €1,90 of net revenue simply to cover the goods, the parcel and the fee. Budget above the floor and the ads build profit; below it, they buy losses, which is the diagnosis in ads eating your profit.

How to use it

  1. 01Start from planned orders and a realistic average order value, not from last month's spend.
  2. 02Enter contribution per order after goods, fulfilment and payment fees.
  3. 03Subtract the month's fixed costs and the profit you intend to keep.
  4. 04What remains is the budget. Check the implied ratio against what your ads have really returned.
  5. 05Revise mid-month if orders or contribution move; the budget is a consequence, not a commitment.

What is inside

nouz-marketing-budget-planner.csv
Rowmonthplanned_ordersaverage_order_valuecontribution_per_ordercontribution_totalfixed_coststarget_profitbudget_availableimplied_mer
12026-0970685.0044.6831544.087000.009500.0015044.083.99
2
3

Every column, explained

monthThe month being planned.
planned_ordersWhat you expect to sell, from a recent month.
average_order_valueNet of VAT.
contribution_per_orderAfter goods, fulfilment and fees. The per-order equivalent of line 25.
contribution_totalplanned_orders times contribution_per_order.
fixed_costsEverything the month pays regardless of sales. Line 31.
target_profitWhat you intend the month to keep. Line 33.
budget_availablecontribution_total minus fixed_costs and target_profit. Line 27.
implied_merPlanned net revenue divided by the budget: the ratio the plan assumes.