Ecommerce cash flow forecast
Thirteen weeks and twelve months of cash, with the VAT return and supplier terms on their own dates.
Planning next month's spend
What this file is
A marketing budget planner works backwards from margin instead of forwards from last month's spend. Contribution after goods, fulfilment and fees, minus fixed costs and the profit you intend to keep, is what is genuinely available for advertising, and the implied ratio says whether it is achievable.
What is inside
Most budgets start from last month's spend. This one starts from contribution: what the orders you expect will leave, what the fixed block needs, and what is genuinely available to spend.
Rows 1 and 2 are the file. Click any cell to read it; the foot of the sheet says what its column is for.
| Row | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | month | planned_orders | average_order_value | contribution_per_order | contribution_total | fixed_costs | target_profit | budget_available | implied_mer | |
| 2 | 2026-09 | 706 | 85.00 | 44.68 | 31544.08 | 7000.00 | 9500.00 | 15044.08 | 3.99 | |
| 3 | ||||||||||
| 4 | ||||||||||
| 5 | ||||||||||
| 6 | ||||||||||
| 7 |
A · monthThe month being planned.
In the order they sit in the file. Point at one and it is outlined in the sheet.
Behind the file
Budgets set as a percentage of revenue are guesses wearing a rule. The money available for advertising is whatever contribution remains once the fixed block and the profit you actually intend to keep are taken out, and on thin unit economics that figure can be far smaller than any percentage rule would suggest. The method is set out step by step in setting an ad budget from your margin.
The last column is the reality check. Dividing planned revenue by the budget gives the marketing efficiency ratio the plan assumes, and comparing it against what your advertising has actually delivered is what turns a budget into a forecast rather than a wish. A plan that needs a ratio well above your trailing performance is a plan that will miss.
The floor underneath all of this is the ratio at which an ad euro merely breaks even, which comes from your own contribution margin: on the example figures, every euro of spend needs about €1,90 of net revenue simply to cover the goods, the parcel and the fee. Budget above the floor and the ads build profit; below it, they buy losses, which is the diagnosis in ads eating your profit.
More templates
Thirteen weeks and twelve months of cash, with the VAT return and supplier terms on their own dates.
How much you have to sell before the month pays for itself.
nouz works out your real profit every night, after product costs, shipping, payment fees, ad spend and running costs, and sends it to your inbox each morning.