How accurate is the forecast, and what is the likely range?

Every month ahead comes with a likely range: the band where the result will probably land. nouz measures how accurate it is, instead of promising it. On the page, the range is a grey band, a thin line through a bar, or a line like Likely €12.500 to €15.500.

Testing starts once your store has a little over a year of orders. nouz then runs its own method on past months. It makes the forecast as of the day before each month began. Then it compares that with what the month really brought. With at least three tested months, the likely range is where 8 of 10 of those past forecasts landed. The About this forecast panel shows the average miss.

Before that, the range is an estimate, and the page says so. It is about 10% of net revenue either way, a little wider for each month further out. While the forecast repeats your last four weeks, it is about 25% either way.

The EBITDA range comes from the net revenue range. Say a month's net revenue is €100.000 with a 10% range: €90.000 to €110.000. If 40,0% of net revenue is left after products, shipping and fees, EBITDA moves €4.000 either way. Days already booked are fact, so only the days left are uncertain.

What moves a forecast most is what it cannot know: a launch, a price change or a big sale. Add those as Planned events, or try them in What if. Anything it cannot price yet, like products without a unit cost, is listed in the same panel.