One growth rate for every line
Growing revenue and every cost at the same rate keeps the margin flat and hides the two things that move it: overhead that does not grow, and advertising that grows faster than the orders it buys.
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Profit forecast calculator
This month's P&L carried twelve months forward. Orders grow at your rate and take the goods, shipping and fees with them, ad spend grows at its own rate, and overhead stays where it is, so every month shows net revenue, CM1, CM2, CM3 and EBITDA.
EBITDA over the next twelve months
€142.665,93
14Net revenue, 12 months
€877.067,43
34EBITDA margin
16,3%
15,9% this month
Months in loss
0
of the next twelve
This month, and how it grows
This month
How it grows
Each month compounds on the one before. Set ad spend equal to orders and MER holds steady.
↑ ↓ to nudge, Shift for ten. Commas or dots both work.
The next twelve months
14Net revenue€877.067,43100,0%
19CM1€543.781,8062,0%
25CM2€461.068,5052,6%
29CM3€226.665,9325,8%
33EBITDA€142.665,9316,3%
33EBITDA by month
Month 1€9.887,85
Month 2€10.238,48
Month 3€10.593,40
Month 4€10.952,47
Month 5€11.315,57
Month 6€11.682,53
Month 7€12.053,21
Month 8€12.427,42
Month 9€12.804,96
Month 10€13.185,61
Month 11€13.569,14
Month 12€13.955,30
Every month of the next twelve ends in profit at these rates. The Forecast page in nouz runs the same method on your own orders, season by season, with every scheduled cost change on its own day.
Against €114.499,20 if this month simply repeated. Net revenue reaches €85.545,65 a month by month twelve, and MER moves from 4,00 to 3,56.
Forecast my store from real orders
An estimate from flat rates. In nouz every order is priced from the costs of its own day.
What this calculator does
What it does
A profit forecast calculator carries this month's statement forward month by month. Orders grow at your rate and take the goods, shipping and payment fees with them, ad spend grows at its own rate and overhead stays where it is, so each of the next twelve months shows net revenue, CM1, CM2, CM3 and EBITDA.
The method
Grow what grows with orders, and nothing else.
A month splits into two parts. Everything orders drive, the revenue, the goods, the parcels and the payment fees, grows with the orders: twice the orders is twice every one of those lines. Everything else does not, and that is where a forecast earns its keep.
Overhead stays where it is until you change it, which is why growth usually lifts profit faster than revenue. Ad spend gets its own growth rate, because the cheapest customers tend to be won first and each extra order often costs more than the last. Grow ads faster than orders and MER falls month by month.
This is the method of the Forecast page in nouz, reduced to what can be typed in. The page itself reads the rest from a store’s own orders: last year moved forward day by day to the same weekday, times the growth the orders show, priced by the same P&L engine with every scheduled cost change on its own day.
What no calculator can know is your seasons. Every month here grows at the same rate; a real December does not.
Where it goes wrong
Four ways a profit forecast misleads.
Each of these produces a tidy year that the store then fails to have.
Ad spend scaled with orders by assumption
On the figures above, ad spend growing 4% a month while orders grow 3% leaves the year’s EBITDA at €142.666; holding it to the order growth would give €157.802. The gap is the price of customers getting dearer.
A revenue forecast read as a profit forecast
A sales forecast that ignores costs cannot say whether a month is worth having. The same revenue line can end in very different profits depending on what the growth costs, which is why this one carries the whole statement forward.
Seasons flattened into an average
A month-on-month rate spreads the year evenly. Stock, cash and ad budgets are decided around the peaks, so a forecast that cannot see them should never set them; one built from your own last year can.
Worked example
A year at 3% more orders a month
The calculator’s starting month: €60.000 of net revenue, goods at 38%, €15.000 of ads and €7.000 of fixed costs, ending at €9.542 of EBITDA.
Orders then grow 3% a month and ad spend 4%, while the fixed costs stay put.
The year earns €142.666, against €114.499 if this month simply repeated: profit up 24,6% where net revenue is up 21,8%. The fixed costs are why profit outgrows revenue: they stay the same while the margin above them grows.
The ads hold it back: MER slides from 4,00 to 3,56 as advertising outgrows the orders, and held to the order growth the same year would earn €157.802.
In the app
nouz works this out from every order, every day.
A calculator works from flat rates you type once. nouz prices every single order from the cost rules that were in force on that order's own date, and rebuilds the same statement every night from your own orders and your own ad spend.
- Every cost at the rate of its own day. Product costs, parcels and payment fees per order, so a price change never rewrites last month.
- Ad spend comes in by itself. Meta, Google and TikTok through their official APIs, plus anything you add by hand or by CSV.
- The same lines, per product. What is left after product costs, after shipping and payment fees, and after ads, for every product you sell.
How do I forecast profit for my store?
Split the month into what grows with orders and what does not. Revenue, goods, shipping and payment fees move with the orders; ad spend moves with your budget; rent and salaries stay put until you change them. Grow each part at its own rate and subtract them month by month, and the forecast shows where the margin goes as the store scales.
Why does profit not grow as fast as revenue?
Often it grows faster, because overhead stays fixed while contribution grows. It grows slower when ad spend outruns orders: on the figures above, where ad spend grows faster than orders, MER, the net revenue each euro of advertising brings, falls from 4,00 today to 3,56 in twelve months, and the difference comes straight out of EBITDA.
How accurate is a twelve-month forecast?
As accurate as its growth rate, which is the one number nobody knows. A calculator applies one rate to every month, while seasons, launches and a cost change halfway through the year all move a real store away from it. Read the result as the shape of the year at today's economics, and replace the guesses with your own orders as soon as you can.
Does nouz forecast profit automatically?
Yes. The Forecast page carries a store's own last year forward, every day to the same weekday, times the growth its orders show, and prices it with the same P&L engine, including cost changes already scheduled for later dates. It shows this month and the next twelve, with What if scenarios, goals and a stock and cash plan. A store with less than a year of orders gets a run-rate forecast for the next few months instead.
Should ad spend grow with orders?
Only if each extra order costs what today's orders cost, which is rarely true at scale: the cheapest customers tend to be won first. Giving ad spend its own growth rate shows what happens when acquisition gets dearer; set it equal to order growth and MER holds steady.
What is EBITDA in a forecast?
The profit left after every operating cost: the goods, shipping, payment fees, advertising and overhead. Interest, income tax and depreciation come after it. In a forecast it is the line that says whether growth is making the store more profitable or just busier.
More calculators
Four that go with this one.
Each one is a different question about the same statement. All 32 are free, and none of them asks you to sign up.
All calculatorsShopify profit calculator
What a month of Shopify sales leaves once refunds, VAT, goods, shipping, fees, ads and overhead are out.L25CM2L29CM3L33EBITDA+10Break-even calculator
How many orders a month has to bring in before it covers what the month costs you.L25CM2L29CM3L33EBITDA+7Contribution margin calculator
Three margins instead of one, because the goods, the order and the customer are three different questions.L25CM2L29CM3L33EBITDA+7Margin of safety calculator
How much of the month could disappear before it stops paying for itself, in orders, euros and days.L25CM2L29CM3L33EBITDA+1
The terms this calculator uses
- Profit forecastWhat the months ahead will earn, after every cost.
- Sales forecastWhat a store expects to sell in the weeks and months ahead.
- CM1Net revenue minus the cost of the goods you sold.
- CM2CM1 minus the cost of fulfilling the order and getting paid.
- CM3CM2 minus advertising. The number an operator lives on.
- EBITDAProfit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
- EBITEarnings before interest and tax: EBITDA after depreciation and amortisation.
- MERMarketing efficiency ratio: net revenue divided by total ad spend.
- Fixed costsThe costs you pay whether you sell anything or not.
- Unit economicsWhether one order makes money, before anything is scaled.
The long version
Want the long version rather than the arithmetic?
Growth multipliesthe unitwhatever the unit is worth11 min readHigh revenue, no profit: the four growth taxesThe store grew and the bottom line did not follow. Why scale amplifies weak unit economics, the four taxes growth quietly levies, and the afternoon diagnosis.High revenue, no profitThe next twelve months, from your own orders.
The Forecast page in nouz carries your own last year forward, day by day, and prices it with the same P&L engine: this month and the next twelve, with What if scenarios, goals and a stock and cash plan.
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