Planning ahead

Inventory forecasting

When each product runs out, and what to reorder.

Formula

Units to order = forecast units over the lead time and the weeks ordered for + safety stock − stock on hand − stock on its way
The short answer

Inventory forecasting predicts how stock will move: when each product will run out at the expected pace of sales, and how much has to be ordered, and when, to stay in stock through the supplier's lead time. It is a sales forecast translated into units, shelf by shelf.

The forecast runs per product, because stock runs out per product. Each variant gets an expected daily pace, from its recent sales and, with a year of history, from the same weeks last year; the stock on hand divided by that pace says when it runs out, and the lead time says when the order that prevents it has to go.

Stock already on its way has to count, or the forecast orders it twice. Shopify records incoming quantities but not when they will arrive, so a careful forecast assumes the latest plausible date, the end of the lead time, rather than an early one that would hide a gap.

Saying when stock runs out is half the job. The useful forecast also prices the order, units times the unit cost that will apply on the order date, paid on the supplier's terms, and that is where inventory forecasting meets cash: the order is usually paid before a single unit of it sells.

The Forecast page in nouz does this for every product it can trust. Products Shopify does not track are left out and counted rather than shown as sold out, because their stock level means nothing. What it does not do is manage purchase orders or receive deliveries: it tells you what to order, when, and what it will cost.

Where it lives in nouz. The Forecast page, Stock & cash tab: a purchase plan per product, dated and priced at your unit costs.

Questions

Inventory forecasting, answered.

How do you forecast inventory for a Shopify store?
Take each product's expected daily sales, divide its stock by that pace to see when it runs out, and order before then by at least the supplier's lead time plus a safety margin. Count stock already on order as arriving at the end of the lead time.
Does nouz create purchase orders?
No. It tells you what to order, when and what the order will cost, from your own forecast and costs. Placing, tracking and receiving the order stay in your own tools.

See this on your own store, every morning.

nouz installs from the Shopify App Store, where the listing is in review. It builds your whole statement from your own orders, refunds and costs, every night, and imports every order your store has ever taken.

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