Planning ahead

Inventory forecasting

When each product runs out, and what to reorder.

Updated

Formula

Units to order = daily pace × (lead time + days of cover) − (stock on hand + stock on its way) on the order day
The short answer

Inventory forecasting predicts how stock will move: when each product will run out at the expected pace of sales, and how much has to be ordered, and when, to stay in stock through the supplier's lead time. It is a sales forecast translated into units, shelf by shelf.

The forecast runs per product, because stock runs out per product. Each variant gets an expected daily pace, from its recent sales and, with a year of history, from the same weeks last year; the stock on hand divided by that pace says when it runs out, and the lead time says when the order that prevents it has to go.

Stock already on its way has to count, or the forecast orders it twice. Shopify records incoming quantities but not when they will arrive, so a forecast has to choose: count them as arriving in time, as nouz does, or as late as they plausibly can, the cautious reading for a supplier who is often late.

Saying when stock runs out is half the job. The useful forecast also prices the order, units times the unit cost, paid on the supplier's terms, and that is where inventory forecasting meets cash: the order is usually paid before a single unit of it sells.

In nouz this is the reorder planner on Insights, Inventory, for every variant whose stock Shopify tracks: what it sells a day, its days left, the day it runs out, the day to order by, the suggested order and what that order costs at today's unit cost. Variants Shopify does not track are left out and counted rather than shown as sold out, because their stock level means nothing. The Forecast page forecasts the store's orders and profit, not units per product. What nouz does not do is manage purchase orders or receive deliveries: it tells you what to order, when, and what it will cost.

Where it lives in nouz. Insights, the Inventory tab's reorder planner: Runs out, Order by, Suggested order and Order cost per variant. The Forecast page forecasts orders, not units.

Questions

Inventory forecasting, answered.

How do you forecast inventory for a Shopify store?
Take each product's expected daily sales, divide its stock by that pace to see when it runs out, and order before then by at least the supplier's lead time plus a safety margin. Count stock already on order too, or the same gap gets ordered twice.
Does nouz create purchase orders?
No. Its reorder planner tells you what to order, when and what the order will cost, from your own sales, stock and costs. Placing, tracking and receiving the order stay in your own tools.

See this on your own store, every morning.

Install nouz in minutes from the Shopify App Store. It builds your whole statement from your own orders, refunds and costs, every night, and imports every order your store has ever taken.

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