Ratios and unit economics

Margin of safety

How much of the month could vanish before it stops paying.

Formula

Margin of safety = (orders − break-even orders) ÷ orders
The short answer

The margin of safety is the share of current sales that could disappear before a month stops covering its costs. Expressed in days of trading it becomes concrete: a thirty percent cushion on a thirty-day month is about nine days that could vanish before the store is into a loss.

Two profitable stores can be in completely different positions. One clears its costs on the tenth of the month and the other on the twenty-eighth, and only the cushion, read in days of trading, says so. It is the right frame for any new commitment, because a hire or a rent increase consumes a knowable number of orders from it.

Compare it against your worst recent month rather than your average one. A cushion of twenty percent in a business whose weakest month runs thirty percent under average is not a cushion, it is a scheduled loss with a delay.

It is only as honest as the costs underneath it. Every fixed cost left out of the block, and every ad budget quietly treated as variable when it is really committed, makes the cushion look larger than it is.

Where you see it in nouz

Overview, on the month card, and the break-even chart in Insights.

app.nouz.co/overview
The Overview's month card: how far the month has run past its fixed costs.
The Overview's month card: how far the month has run past its fixed costs.

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